Wednesday, October 31, 2007

...After a while crocodile




CROX is taking a nose dive tonight after reporting its 3Q earnings. Chompers missed the mark on a few earnings and revenue expectations, shouldn't be that huge of a deal to warrant a 23% plunge. Or does it? Could these latest earnings report be a glance into the future of a huge FAD? Do the big money managers who sold this off tonight see the writing on the wall? I say yes.

Lets look at what crocs actually is and not what the numbers say it is. I know I know that's a hard thing to do for number lovers. Crocs makes a great (yes I said it) rubber shoes with holes all over them. Unfortunately it's only a great shoe when it's not snowing and freezing cold, and it's no longer cool to be wearing them. Crocs has two huge hurdles ahead of them in the upcoming months. 1) Mother nature, Crocs will still sell in Hawaii but not in the other 40-45 other states where wearing clogs with vents all over them makes for frozen toes. 2) Crocs is a fad, it's the reason it put up huge numbers and it's the reason that it's going to take big dives. Once something becomes a big fad everyone wants them. However as we all know the nature of a fad is for it to spike quickly and die off equally as fast. Sure Crocs will still be big with nurses and chefs but come june there will be a new boss in footwear town.

Crystal ball says look for more bad news next quarter.

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